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You are listening to this week's Guardian PIXEL Burkina Faso’s new interim government is unlikely to quell long-lasting political violence. On 30 September, Captain Ibrahim Traoré and the Burkinabe military ousted Interim President Paul-Henri Damiba after eight months in power. Mr Ibrahim alluded to Mr Damiba’s lackluster efforts to quell political violence as rationale for the coup. However, Mr Traore faces a difficult panorama. Guardian expects instability levels to remain high through January 2023 after having peaked in September. And since 1 September, JNIM and ISIS-GS, insurgency groups, have conducted 63 and 11 attacks, respectively, and since 16 September the country has faced 19 protests, judging from our review of ACLED data. From Guardian’s Africa Desk: “Out with the old, in with the new” or in Burkina Faso’s case “out with the new and in with the newer.” The new interim government is not a silver bullet to the country’s woes, and it is leaving the door open to Russian influence. In early October, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, expressed his support for the new government saying, “I salute and support Captain Ibrahim Traoré.” This is typical Russian behavior. Russia preys on the unstable and seeks inroads with the new Burkinabe government to exploit natural sources and develop unilaterally beneficial relationships. Europe Ukraine will likely focus part of its counteroffensive on disrupting Russian supply routes in the Kerch Strait, as it advances towards Kherson. The Kerch Bridge – reportedly damaged by Ukraine earlier this week – is the primary supply route for supplies to Russian forces in Southern Ukraine, including Kherson. Guardian has partially corroborated Russia’s reliance on the Kerch Bridge with past and active predictions of Russian military movements through January 2023. This suggests Russia will continue to use the bridge and that further damage to the bridge would hamper Russia’s ability to reinforce depleted troops in the Kherson Province and farther south. From Guardian’s Europe Desk: The Kerch Bridge is not just militarily important for Ukraine’s Kherson counteroffensive. The bridge has been called a symbol of Russian pride, and Mr Putin personally ordered its construction. If Ukraine is successful in rendering it inoperable, – a difficult task given the bridge’s robust security posture — it would drive Russian troops and even population’s (if news breaks through) morale and confidence downward. That may contribute to an expected increase in political instability through December 2022, judging from Guardian's Instability feature. Asia China’s military will likely reposition assets to Liaoning Province – bordering North Korea – in response to recent North Korean missile tests. Between 25 September and 10 October, North Korea launched seven ballistic missiles. Guardian anticipates China to deploy some form of military equipment in and around Shenyang, China approximately 240 kilometers from North Korea sometime this month, judging from our Chinese Aggression Prediction feature. From Guardian’s Asia Desk: “Rocket Man” is at it again. This time he has launched seven ballistic missiles – causing Japanese citizens to duck for cover on 4 October. His latest acts may be a response to rising domestic instability. Our model shows elevated levels of political instability lasting through 2022, with high unemployment as a critical driving variable. But these recent launches may prove counterproductive to his relationship with the country’s only ally. China’s main interest is keeping a stable status quo in the Korean peninsula and has not shied away from criticizing and sending a message. Thank you for listening.