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You are listening to this week’s Guardian PIXEL. Brasil is likely to endure political turmoil through 2022. Regardless of whether current president Jairo Bolsonaro or former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is elected, conditions for political instability are ripe. Between October and January 2023, we expect instability in Brazil to rise steadily – reaching a normalized 96 percent in January 2023, according to Guardian’s Instability feature. Conditions on the ground partially corroborate this. Mr Bolsonaro – the incumbent and far-right candidate — has cast doubt on the electoral system and has stated he may not accept its results. Moreover, economic stagnation, soaring inflation, and food insecurity have risen to levels unseen a decade ago. One in three Brazilians say they have struggled recently to feed their families, according to Reuter polling. From Guardian’s Americas Desk: The Brasilian election is a never ending tale. Mr Lula has resurrected from political death after being impeached and incarcerated and is now likely to be reelected, according to the latest exit polls. But beyond Lula’s unthinkable return to political life, the election will have immediate consequences on climate change, Chinese and Russian influence in Latin America’s largest economy, and the reversal or continuation of a wider trend in Latin America of populists turning to authoritarians. Russia is unlikely to meet Mr. Putin’s mobilization quotas on time. In addition to the known exodus of eligible men, between 21 and 26 September, Russia experienced thirteen attacks on recruitment centers. And since June 2022, Russian instability has increased by 42 percent and is predicted to increase to a normalized sixty percent by December of this year, according to Guardian’s Instability feature. In March, we had previously assessed that Russian instability would persist through the end of the year – potentially weakening Mr Putin’s hold on power. From Guardian’s Europe Desk: It is very clear how unpopular the draft has been in Russia. Whether the domestic instability lasts and shakes – and to what extent – the foundation of Mr Putin’s hold on power is unclear. Yet, Mr. Putin’s military will almost certainly have to delay deploying in order to train the conscripted forces. This may cause the Russian military to rely on heavier artillery than infantry. China’s Tianlian 1-01 satellite likely conducts aggressive maneuvers against U.S. satellites. In 2020, Guardian indicated close proximity between Tianlian 1-01, a Chinese communication satellite, and a U.S. military satellite. Currently, the Chinese satellite shows abnormal changes to its semi-major axis – or the satellite’s orbit. These are man-made changes that indicate anomalous orbital activity when done infrequently. Operators also used high thrust power to affect Tianlian 1-01’s orbit by a small degree. From Guardian’s Space Desk: China is notorious for dual-use commercial equipment. It is notable that a “communication satellite” is showing signs of aggressive behaviors against a known U.S. military satellite. This could mean that the Tianlian 1-01 has or serves previously unknown or unreported signals or anti-satellite capabilities.